1. “Housing Boom and Non-housing Consumption: Evidence from Urban Households in China.” (Job Market Paper, January 2018) [Manuscript] [Online Appendix]
We explore the response of non-housing consumption to housing price movements in urban China, which has been enjoying a real estate boom ever since 2003. Using microeconomic data from the Urban Household Survey during 2002-2009, we estimate an average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of housing wealth of 0.025-0.03 for homeowners. We employ a novel instrumental variable associated with China’s higher-education expansion between 1998 and 2005 to ensure that the estimate is causal effect. We further find substantial heterogeneity in the consumption response along several dimensions, including homeownership, income and wealth status, degree of collateral constraint, and durability and income elasticity of consumption goods.
2. “Time-Varying Impacts of Financial Credits on Firm Exports: Evidence from Trade Deregulation in China.” (with Zhongzhong Hu and Yong Tan, August 2017), Under Review, [Manuscript] [SSRN]
This paper investigates the heterogeneous and time-varying effects of internal and external finance on firm-level export performance. We apply panel-data DID and DDD methods to microeconomic data on Chinese manufacturing firms, and find that internal or external finance improves export values more for firms that switch from indirect to direct exporting than continuous indirect exporters, and it is more so in the post-WTO accession period.
3. “Credit Rationing and Firm Exports: Microeconomic Evidence from SMEs in China.” (with Yong Tan and Jian Yu, February 2018), Under Review, [Manuscript] [SSRN]
This paper examines the effect of credit rationing on export performance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We utilize a novel firm-level data set that covers Chinese SMEs and provides firm-specific measures of credit rationing based directly on firms’ response to the survey rather than indirectly from firms’ financial statements. We construct firm-level instrumental variable for credit rationing in the estimation, and find that credit rationing reduces SMEs’ export probability by 22%-36% and decreases their export values by more than 32%.
4. “Process Innovation and Product Diffusion Through Trade: A Study of U.S. Automobile Exports from 1913 to 1940.” (with Mario J. Crucini, Hyunseung Oh, and Hakan Yilmazkuday, May 2017) [Preliminary draft is available upon request]
This paper studies the diffusion of a new and highly traded good (i.e. automobile) from global obscurity to a steady-state level in the first half of the twentieth century. We scrape historical data on quantity and value of passenger vehicles exported from the United States to conduct this analysis. We focus on U.S. exports because the United States was dominant in both production and trade of automobiles before World War II. A symmetric Armington Model of automobile diffusion with a CES demand structure helps us cleanly separate the determinants of long-run levels and the dynamic paths towards those levels, and generates a reasonable match between data and model.
Working in Progress
- “Housing Boom and Household Consumption in China: Decomposing Competing Channels.”
- “Identifying and Demystifying Learning-by-Exporting.” (with Zhongzhong Hu and Joel Rodrigue)
- “The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Firm Exports.” (with Jian Yu and Yong Tan)
- “Property Rights Protection, Productivity, and Exports: Theory and Evidence from China.”